the math: romney losing ground in the west?

(Just call me a poor man's Nate Silver...)

North Carolina and Florida traded places in the last couple of days. It is probably much too early to take either seriously. However, Obama's slight advantages in Ohio and Virginia seem to be holding.

Of possibly more significance: Obama seems to have gained just enough ground in Colorado to qualify for the "likely" category, which moves his probable electoral vote count (in our super-simple model) to 250. In what may constitute a regional trend, Romney's leads in Arizona and Montana have fallen below the 10 point threshold for "safe". If I were a younger man, I'd blame Gary Johnson.

Romney's path to victory: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconcin.

Obama's: Don't fuck it up. 

(Latest data gleaned from RCP. Where there are multiple recent polls with different results, my general approach is to split the difference. This is art, not science.)

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