8.26.2008

(you're just like) crosstown traffic

In a post about radical traffic calming, Megan McArdle makes some great points about the relative value of safety versus the feeling thereof:

The problem is that in this case, there's a direct tradeoff between actual safety and feeling safe. The safer people feel on the road, the more likely they are to get into accidents--which is why lots of innovations, like seatbelts, have underdelivered in mortality improvements.


She later cites (a bit gratuitously) the stereotypical four-wheel drive vehicle from warmer climes emboldened by all that traction into driving poorly in winter conditions. Even though I happen to be the owner of a jeep with "southern plates" I am not terribly offended; in Arizona I saw no shortage of people under monsoon conditions that seemed to think that four-wheel drive enabled their vehicle to operate as a submarine. There is almost certainly something to this, and the problem, as always, is with the driver...

Anyway, the thread (predictably) generated into a conversation I have heard at least a thousand times, which begins with the thesis "people in [location X] are BY FAR the WORST drivers..." which is followed by an endless volley of counterexamples and/or affirmations.

This is silly. But it is, I think, instructive.

There are essentially two rules for which locale a person is likely to claim contains the world's worst drivers:

1) It is a place they have visited, not lived, or
2) If it is a place where they do live or have lived, it is almost certainly NOT the place where they learned to drive or are otherwise the most comfortable driving.

Driving in an unfamiliar place is stressful. Driving in an unfamiliar, large city in traffic is especially stressful. And stress colors our perceptions. You are paying attention to everything, or at least more than you would in familiar surroundings. As a result, you notice every sudden lane change, every tailgater, everyone lagging in the fast lane. And if someone cuts you off while you are in the (rather stressful) process of finding your next turn, you are very likely to take it personally, and generalize their behavior to that of the city's traffic in general.

By contrast, I had to slam on the breaks on the freeway home today because of a VERY sudden bunching of traffic. My slowing was sufficiently abrupt that I distinctly remember looking in my rear view and trying to calculate whether the car behind me was going to be able to stop in time, and whether I should tap my accelerator to at least soften the blow (he was, and I didn't). My heart rate didn't budge. This was just a brief moment in an otherwise utterly mundane and routine commute.

Having driven in more states than I haven't, in most major metro areas of the country at one time or another, I can honestly say that drivers everywhere suck about the same. Even in northern Mexico, it isn't a whole lot different.

The one place I have driven where I honestly noticed a difference was Germany. The lane discipline on the Autobahn is impeccable.

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