5.23.2007

13 things when I am old

I will grab RW's open-ended non-tag, and predict 13 things that will be when I am old.

My operational definition of "old" will be the year that I turn 80 (2057), because by then:

1. 80 will be proclaimed "the new 70", 70 have been proclaimed "the new 60" around 2035 or so. This is good, because by now, the average person is in school until they are 35. (I'm not overeducated, you see...just an early adopter.)

2. A Pulitzer will be awarded to a 16-year-old for her MySpace page, which, having been online for 8 entire months, makes it the longest-lived periodical of the past 30 years.

3. Antipsychotics and antidepressants will be compulsory, while 40% of U.S. Customs enforcement resources will be devoted to intercepting clandestine tobacco shipments.

4. Populations will be much more decentralized. The largest city in the U.S. will be a suburb of Phoenix that hasn't even been incorporated yet.

5. English will be the most popular second language taught in American schools, more or less tied with Spanish. (Everyone's first language, naturally, will be Chinese.)

6. The Islamic Reformation will be well underway. The collapse of the oil-based economy (due to the development of other fuels and/or diminution of oil reserves) will have eroded the power base of dictatorial regimes who previously were able to support themselves by pulling money out of the ground. These regimes will be variously replaced by popular Islamist revolutionary types, secularist dictators, and maybe one or two quasi-liberal democracies, the processes of getting there being variously violent and relatively peaceful. The relative economic success of these societies will drive migration and calls for change within the more conservative societies. Fundamentalists will remain, but will be increasingly marginalized.

7. Most people in the developed world will die of accidents, because heart disease, most cancers, and many neurodegenerative diseases will be treatable, curable, or even preventable.

8. The global population will have plateaued around 15 billion as birth rates fell with increasing affluence in Africa and Latin America, just like they did everywhere else throughout human history.

9. Religiousity in the United States will be at more or less the same level as Europe's in 2007, and be similarly heterogeneous among various regions.

10. Though the overall standard of living will be much higher for everyone than it is now, the relative wealth of upper, middle and lower classes will be much, much more disparate than it is today. As a result, the political landscape with regard to economic and tax policy will look essentially the same as it does now.

11. Nuclear weapons will be widespread among the nations of the world, thus detering their use by anyone on anyone else.

12. Mars will have been colonized by Mormons, privately financed.

13. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will finally win another national championship, their 5th in 140 years. I will watch it via satellite from my house in Mexico, where [m] and I will have retired 20 years prior.

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