iowa postmortem

The possibility of Christian conservatives "coalescing" (a word I read an awful lot last night) behind Rick Santorum sent me to bed genuinely frightened about this election for the first time.

In the (grey, cool) light of day, though, I don't think he amounts to a great deal. He's another not-Romney having a momentary peak, and just happened to get lucky with the timing. Think of it as an unusual winning streak in the first week of the playoffs. He doesn't have a national organization, and I think most people really don't know (yet!) just how much of a warmongering theocrat he really is.

I stand by my prediction that it's going to be Romney. Romney:2012::Kerry:2004.

I'd say the real winner last night was Barack Obama.


Gino said...

with the economy in the shits, the only one available that i want on there would be Romney. Obama will still be clueless three years from now.

BUT... i dont know how well he can keep his GOP war gene in check. and a(nother) war would definately be far worse than any economic strides we might make.

Ron Paul has some problems, and i dont think he can sit in that office at this time, but on what may the most important issues of our time (monetary policy, trade, war) he's the only one that seems to get it.

he proclaims "we dont need to be in any more wars!" and the rest just look at him like he's crazy to think that way.

Brian said...

I think Romney will be the nominee. He will fail to excite enough turnout to beat Obama. And a significant chunk of the country is going to lose their damn mind over it.

Gino said...

what do you think romney will need to win?
i'm thinking... he needs to give the Paul supportors a reason to vote for him...
but, if he starts talking all war-weary and shit, the Christian right will avoid the polls...
and he will need their turnout too.

we need an adult to manage things. somebody who knows how shit works, and not how he thinks they should work.
not totally sold on romney, but the guy we have have now cant get it done. he's still cluless after 3yrs.

Brian said...

The only way Romney wins the general is by converting marginal Obama voters in swing states. He will not win on Republican turnout.

The only other scenario I see is if a third-party candidate actually managed to take away votes from Obama instead of Romney. But that seems really unlikely. Much more likely is an LP-nominated Gary Johnson or Ron Paul pulls in 5-10% of the vote...most of that coming out of Romney's end, and gives Obama a landslide in the electoral college.

Romney is Kerry in 2004.